Some factors that could affect the UK economy in 2023 include:
Brexit: The UK's departure from the European Union could have long-term effects on trade, investment, and economic growth. The final outcome of the Brexit negotiations and the UK's ability to strike new trade deals with other countries will be crucial in determining the future of the economy. Interest rates: The Bank of England's monetary policy could impact the economy by affecting borrowing costs and consumer spending. Inflation: High inflation could erode the value of people's savings and reduce consumer spending, which could have a negative impact on economic growth. Global economic conditions: The UK economy is highly interconnected with the global economy, and any changes in global economic conditions could affect the UK's trade and investment. Technological advances: Technological advancements and their impact on industries and jobs could have both positive and negative effects on the economy. The UK economy has been recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is expected to continue its growth trajectory in 2022 and 2023. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicts that the UK economy will grow by 6.5% in 2021, followed by 5.6% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023. Assuming that the UK economy continues to recover from the pandemic, it is possible that it will experience sustained growth in 2024. The government's investments in infrastructure and green initiatives, along with the gradual lifting of pandemic-related restrictions, could support this growth. However, there are some potential challenges that could impact the UK economy in 2024, such as the effects of Brexit, global economic conditions, inflation, and interest rates. The Bank of England's monetary policy and its impact on borrowing costs and consumer spending will also play a significant role in the economy's performance. In summary, predicting the state of the UK economy in 2024 with certainty is difficult. However, if current trends continue, it is possible that the economy will experience sustained growth. Nonetheless, it's essential to monitor the economic indicators and watch out for potential risks and challenges that could impact the economy's performance. LATEST TREND The IMF expects the UK to grow in 2024, revising up its forecast to 0.9% from 0.6%. Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said that the IMF's forecasts were not always right, and he noted the fund was "actually being more optimistic than it was a few months ago". Forecasts from the Bank of England due later this week are likely to be more positive than they were two or three months ago, he added. "My best guess is that the economy will be broadly stagnant this year. That we're not going to get much in the way of growth but we're not going to have a deep recession either," . "Now that's not great, particularly as we should be bouncing back more strongly from Covid and particularly as we've not been growing terribly well for the last decade and more."